Yes, thats the story running in Alley Insider. But lets take it that way for a moment that Facebook will kill Google by 2011/12. And to be very precise, the author Henry Blodget did some nifty analysis in his part to bring this story. But didn’t he miss the whole point of comparing two disparate business models?

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Now here’s what he has to say about comparing those two big mamooth’s of today’s internet – Google ($GOOG) and Facebook.

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Google and Facebook are two of the fastest growing and largest companies on the internet, and thus far, Facebook’s ascendancy has likely helped Google gain share. 45% of monthly unique users go directly to Facebook (as a starting page), up from 39% a year ago. At the same time, Google is now driving 64% of Facebook’s uniques, up from 51% a year ago. Google.com, on the other hand, has a consistent 66% of its uniques as a starting page, same as a year ago. Google’s uniques via Facebook are growing at 188% y/y, and  now represent 19% of Google’s traffic (up from 9% 12-months ago).

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The rant continues…

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Facebook’s incremental uniques going to Google.com are 50% greater than incremental uniques going to Microsoft and 250% greater than those going to Yahoo.  Facebook’s growth is actually helping boost Google’s search share vs. the other engines. This staggering statistic alone is likely central to all future negotiations for Facebook monetization deals, whether it is with Google, Microsoft, or Yahoo.

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And finally the big prediction:

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Facebook Could Surpass Google In 2011/2012: If we assume modest deceleration in growth for both sites (an 85% CAGR for Facebook and a 20% CAGR for Google), Facebook could surpass Google in terms of total worldwide uniques, by late-2011 or early-2012.

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Sorry, but I can’t help thinking that how can you come to a conclusion that Facebook can kill Google with these set of numbers. I agree that these are hard facts and can’t be falsified but come on, for a business to survive, don’t we need more than just that.

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Below are my thoughts on the same (though I totally understand that the article has been named as such to create hype; at least I hope it tried to do so!)

  • I think the author has missed the basic point wherein he just casually compared a search engine with social networking site which is more like comparing apples with oranges. They both serve very different purpose altogether at the end of the day.
  • Secondly, Google has a set business model wherein they are monetizing their search by Adwords whereas Facebook is still grappling to understand how to monetize.
  • Going forward, you need a viable business model to channelize your funds into future growth. Google has it but what about Facebook? The question arises that will facebook be able to sustain its business model till that time…
  • Lastly, KILLING Google would be a misnoner in the present context wherein Social media sites have just tasted human attention for like 3-4 years max. And the extrapolated data shows 2-3 from now. So future analysis with current trends in mind is kinda weird for social networking sites since every now and then, human attention span decreases and intention survives. And thats where I think Google has an upper cut!
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So what do you think folks? Anything you would like to add to that…

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