For the last couple of years, Indian advertising business has grown double digits (nearly 20% y-o-y) but what’s in store for the industry has turn out to be a million dollar question!

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Different media & research houses are predicting in a different league altogether- ranging from 2% to 9%. Madison Media has the bleakest Outlook. In its report with Pitch magazine, the agency said advertising will grow only by 2% in 2009. GroupM is the most optimistic, projecting a 9% growth in 2009. The FICCI-KPMG report projected a 7.58% growth and a just released report by Media Partners Asia, a research firm, says advertising will grow 7.2%. (Source)

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Last week, I wrote that Indian Media & Entertainment (M&E) industry grew at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% during 2006-08. It was a Rs. 58,400 crore ($12.16 billion) industry in 2008. Also,  last year’s edition of the report, which was prepared by PricewaterhouseCoopers, said the CAGR for 2004-07 was 19%.

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So one thing is certain that industry as a whole, be it entertainment, media or advertising par se is showing declining growth rate for the future. Blame it on recession or it was obvious that such was going to happen but what’s interesting is where are those dollars going to fly – any takers on that? Psst! I’ve my bet already on it…

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