MediaPost outlines 5 key trends for “mobile search” that will be prevalent in 2009.

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Trend #1: Content and commerce transaction revenues will continue to dwarf mobile advertising revenue — and will come from more off-portal sources.

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According to Jupiter Research and numerous other sources, mobile content transactions generated more than $25 billion in worldwide revenue in 2008 and is projected to exceed $50 billion by 2012-13. Add mobile commerce to the mix (in Japan, M-Commerce grossed $6 billion in 2007, double mobile content sales) and transaction-oriented behavior will top $100 billion in this time frame.

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This is quite interesting since in India much of the revenues for cellular operating companies’ revenues come from MVAS i.e. about Rs. 16,520 Cr i.e. US$4 Bn which is also growing at 70% Y-o-Y. So not much for M-Commerce since it’s at an early stage in India driven primarily by travel & ticketing, money transfer, bill payments. But surely in 2009, this is catch good traction.

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Trend #2: One size doesn’t fit all: the importance of vertical search in complementing horizontal Web search.

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To combat click fatigue and user dissatisfaction with slow, often irrelevant horizontal search results, operators and portals are embracing vertical search in the high-value content channels that drive transactions and will seek more efficient ways to integrate high traffic social networks to help drive sales of wireless data.

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Trend #3: Operators and portals will redefine the paths to “information” versus “transactions” and how results are presented.

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This redefinition will take place on the phone top, through increasing “widgetization” that will guide users to “Get Info” or “Get Stuff” and at the portal level, where user interfaces will be streamlined to get users to the right search solution (horizontal or vertical)  for their needs.

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Trend #4: “Search merchandising” will take hold as operators and portals learn how to blend mobile content discovery with broader search behaviors.

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With billions of dollars of content revenues at stake, operators and portals will not easily cede search to Web search engines and will actively pursue multiple strategies to both engage and neutralize potential competitors. As they do, they’ll continue to hone their ability to leverage user profiles, demographic analysis, new PPC vertical paid search programs, and new semantic recommendation tools to present users with attractive, transaction-oriented content choices.

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With regard to this, though I don’t think 2009 is the year when operators & portals will be able to sought out any concrete ways for revenue sharing but I do believe the ubiquity of mobiles and demand generation from end users will force operators and portals networks to come to a bridging solution.

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Trend #5: Mobile operators will make peace with the Internet.

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But they will always want to hold the aces. After all, it’s their spectrum that delivers it — and they will want to maximize value and brand power while improving user experiences. They will enable many new players to drive traffic, from Google to Nokia Ovi to social networks, but will continue to have the last word in how their networks are used.

This trend will again be nullified by my last trends reasoning IMHO.

So these are the key 5 trends that will follow in year 2009. What else can we add here? Do feel free to comment. I’ll add if possible.

via MediaPost

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